"The future will die a number of battery factory," "China's electric car to be cheap, I think it may be fifty or sixty thousand."
In the SASAC led the establishment of the "central enterprises of the electric car industry alliance", the August 22, 863 new energy vehicle project supervision expert group leader Wang Binggang for the central enterprises electric vehicle alliance duties, China electric car business operation mode, electric vehicle development In the "chaos", the development of electric vehicles with Chinese characteristics, and so on the road, outspoken.
The future of a large number of battery factory will die?
"21st Century": how to look at the newly established central enterprises electric car alliance?
Wang Binggang: This is indeed a good thing, further shows that the state of the electric car as a strategic development of the industry, SASAC subordinate state-owned enterprises have a lot of important resources, in addition to cars, as well as power, energy and so on. The state-owned enterprises to respond positively to the development of electric vehicles, the country's leading role is great. However, the alliance can play a key role in the final look at how the operation, if the objective laws of respect for the operation of the market, more from the consumer point of view, then it will be successful. On the contrary if the subjective will fail.
"21st Century": the central enterprises of the electric car alliance and other alliances, one of the biggest feature is brought together outside the traditional automotive industry resources, such as power, energy, whether it will promote the commercialization of electric vehicles in the process?
Wang Binggang: I especially want to say that the process of commercialization must attach great importance to the needs of consumers, we have done in this area is not enough.
I recently participated in the demonstration project of private electric vehicles in Hangzhou, where the focus is built by the national power station charging station. I am not very optimistic about this, and now very scarce land resources in the city, the size of the charging station is much larger than the gas station. I think the charging method must be convenient, the economy, from the consumer point of view to be cheaper, from the whole society is to invest less.
On the contrary, the Guangzhou experience is worth learning, they proposed two: the new area of 20% of the parking spaces to lay the power grid, to charge pile, also selected a few existing district to do the transformation.
"21st Century": There is a saying, several central enterprises took the opportunity to "enclosure movement."
Wang Binggang: state-owned enterprises occupy important resources, such as the national grid, power should be the whole community to enjoy the resources, electric vehicle charging facilities should be for the whole society, to solicit the views of all parties.
For now, in some cities, the grid action makes people realize that they consider their own more, taking into account the few consumers. I believe there are a lot of power grid wise, and I think they can recognize. If the construction of the charging station to land in the city, and built after the car also went to the charging station, the traffic is no good.
"21st Century": You have an article in the blog "Beware of electric scams in the cause of science and technology", you must also note that the new energy vehicles are growing chaos?
Wang Binggang: Yes, I particularly want to remind local governments, some of them eager to take the opportunity of new energy vehicles, the development of the automotive industry, because the auto industry is very attractive, the growth of GDP has a clear lead, The government is not technology, once someone to sell technology, local government will look, to the preferential policies, investment, land, and finally nothing developed here, I call the local government, must be calm, for security We must maintain a scientific rigor.
"21st Century": We now have 25 pilot cities, there are five new energy subsidies to the city. Solve the problem of new energy chaos, the state should be how to grasp the overall situation?
Wang Binggang: From the national point of view, I hope this new energy vehicles can develop a little faster, in the international arena has a favorable position. But this process, a lot of things to consider not enough detail, there will be chaotic situation. You said that the 25 cities, from the current situation, some cities are not very equipped with the conditions, not suitable for demonstration. In this case, the state should increase the control of things, leadership, or there will be a lot of very blind things happen.
"21st Century": What do you think is more prominent?
Wang Binggang: battery here is the most prominent, and now everywhere in the construction of the battery factory, there is no lack of local government fooled phenomenon. I estimate that the end of this year or next year, the battery output to far more than the car's output, and the car is not produced on it, so that consumers can accept is a relatively long process. Consumers, car factory has not moved, the battery has done a great.
In addition, now cast money, battery technology development in the future, the current equipment investment may be in vain. In addition there are equipment cast, but not production, the battery needs are not so great, or a large capacity battery factory, but the raw materials can not keep up, like the diaphragm to a large number of imports. Can imagine, the future will die a number of battery factory.
In addition to the prominent problem of the battery, there are everywhere to build charging stations, the future will encounter problems. In fact, after a year or two of demonstration operations, we will accumulate a lot of experience, to slowly do, the Chinese have an old saying, "sharpening the wood workers do not mistake."
In addition, it is often said, my battery charge, a breath from Shenzhen to Guangzhou, this is meaningless, as if I add a larger car fuel tank will be able to run farther without refueling. And the battery will be more heavy, more dangerous.
5 million -6 million electric car is Chinese characteristics?
"21st Century": You have called on the blog to discuss the development of Chinese characteristics with the road or road. Now for a reasonable path you have some deeper understanding?
Wang Binggang: I think the core is to locate the electric car in what size of the car, which will focus on the road reflected in China's electric vehicles. If we also design the electric car with the same traditional car specifications, and foreign countries will be the same as the final car will be expensive. For example, has been sold internationally, next year will also be listed in China, Nissan's hearing the wind, the price is about 300,000 yuan, I think this price in China may be difficult to sell.
As a strategic industry, China's electric car must be oriented to large-scale market, for general consumption, the car should be cheaper, can not be 300,000, I think it may be fifty or sixty thousand, the initial consideration of state subsidies may be thirty or forty thousand. I think this is the Chinese characteristics of the rapid development of electric vehicles on the road, and this car is not interested in foreign manufacturers, they can not do. We are to do cheap, small, and only run in the city, the general is two seats, no more than four seats, the speed can not be too high, such as 70 km, so the battery can be very small.
"21st Century": You said this route also requires the country's leading role?
Wang Binggang: Yes, the country should play a leading role. We are here to go back to the front of the National Organizing Committee of the topic, they engage in a platform for electric vehicles, the platform will have a great role in the hope that the central enterprises to take the lead in redesigning a platform for electric vehicles to take the lead in the battery module set up. Now I have seen the country, and basically put the electric car on the stalls I just said, entrepreneurs are very smart, and know what kind of car can be sold, high-end car is only used in the exhibition.
"21st Century": the most critical issue is still the cost of the battery?
Wang Binggang: This is a great space, and now there is a battery of electricity to the market three or four thousand dollars, a car is probably enough to save ten degrees, so that the battery is thirty or forty thousand. Careful analysis of the cost of the battery, the battery has technical costs, but when the output is large, the cost of technology amortization is very small, that is, the battery is the main cost of mass production of raw materials.
The battery material is not expensive, nickel-metal hydride batteries why not now, because nickel is very expensive; why fuel cell is more expensive, because you want to use precious metals platinum. The cost of lithium batteries is very low, and lithium is not expensive, and now the cost of the diaphragm accounted for 20% of the battery, but the diaphragm is only relatively high technical content of the plastic film, now the film to import, so expensive. Once our own production is very cheap. Now has been able to have a domestic enterprises in the production of this film, and the price is a quarter of foreign, the future can still be cheap. Battery space is a great price, one is mass production, one is the localization of materials. Now we are also promoting the localization of materials, their own membrane. If these solutions, the battery can reach once a thousand dollars look like a battery of electric vehicles as long as 10,000, coupled with the cost of three or four million cars, and oil and electricity a year would almost save 1 Million of the.
80 km standard can be lower?
"21st Century": At present, the central enterprises in the alliance of several groups, including the vehicle, a battery, there are charging and service groups, the middle of the battery, do you think they will be in the field of battery technology breakthroughs ??
Wang Binggang: I think the current battery technology and the next generation of battery technology is very important. At this stage of the battery technology, from the manufacturers point of view, the overall performance of the battery are almost the same, but in quality control, consistency is different. Now the question is how to do the current material system, and then do a good job of quality control, security do a good job. Next, five to 10 years later, the new batteries will come out, and now we put the power of the next generation of batteries are not enough.
From now to the next five years, I think that is the initial stage of electric cars, the initial stage will be a small-scale demonstration, increase everyone's awareness of electric vehicles. In five years, in 2020, the electric car is expected to form a small scale, small-scale promotion in the community. I think the real large-scale promotion will be the next decade, that is, after 2020, I believe who has mastered the new materials department who will master the future of the electric car market.
But we have not done enough in this regard, I would call this on many occasions. For enterprises, will only care about the current and future 5 years, 10 years. 10 years after the matter, and national research institutions in this area is very poor, and very little input. But Japan, the United States, Germany are investing heavily in research a new generation of batteries.
"21st Century": You are talking about the government level of investment?
Wang Binggang: Yes, the government investment, companies are cast. I am very worried about this, we are now using lithium iron phosphate battery is not invented by us, the Americans invented. We have also been plagued by patents. The core technology of this generation of batteries is not our, the core technology of the next generation of batteries if we are not, very bad. This is not much business capital, hope the state can invest some, build one or two battery research institutions.
"21st Century": For the central enterprises alliance you have no other suggestions?
Wang Binggang: the standard is very important, it is a guide to technology. Standard, I am most concerned about is the electric car's top speed, can be set high. Now the initial determination of the maximum speed of 80 km standard, can not lower this again, down to 70 or 60, I am more concerned about this, I know that this standard is also undergoing a lot of discussion, I know there seems to be some hope to lower some , So you can further reduce the number of electric vehicle power requirements.
There are some companies hoping to drop to 40 km, but down to such a low, then there will be a bunch of very low quality car to enter the market, this I am not in favor, which the development of the electric car industry has many adverse effects, and The traffic may also be a lot of pressure.
As well as the idea of infrastructure construction, parking spaces must be based on slow charging to focus on fast charging supplement, the proportion of the former should be accounted for more than 90 percent, but now just the initial stage of exploration in a variety of ways Are useful, to prevent large-scale construction of large charging stations.
And then there is the promotion of industrial alliances, of course, the alliance between Chinese enterprises is still very difficult, especially the competitive relationship between each other, in fact, the alliance production models do not have to be exactly the same, the shape of the vehicle can be Characteristics, and to be consistent as far as possible to be consistent, such as batteries, motors, contribute to large-scale production, reduce the cost of everyone.
So I still hope that the state can come up with a leading opinion program as soon as possible.