China's power battery structural overweight intensified: high-end low-end excess

- Mar 03, 2017-

2016 new energy vehicles sold 507,000, an increase of 53%. In the rapid growth of new energy vehicles directly driven by the 2016 power battery industry also ushered in a substantial increase, nearly Bacheng enterprises to achieve profit growth. Among them, the net profit growth of more than 100% of the enterprises reached nearly 50.


But at the same time, power battery industry, "small and scattered" pattern has not been resolved, high-end production capacity of low-end excess capacity problems are further exacerbated. Into 2017, the subsidy policy and other factors, the new energy vehicles in January sales fell sharply year on year, the power battery industry has also been directly affected, the industry is facing a new round of integration and reorganization.


Power battery industry from heat to cold


With the new energy vehicle sales hot, 2016, power battery industry profits increased significantly. According to the 2016 annual report shows that nearly Bacheng power battery enterprises to achieve a profit growth. Among them, the largest increase in net profit forecast more than 100% of the enterprises reached 48, notice the net profit limit of over 100 million yuan of enterprises up to 68. While the industry leader BYD expected 2016 net profit is as high as 5.2 billion.


It is due to the continued growth of new energy automotive market, power battery production capacity has been a gap, lack of supply, and even once the emergence of new energy vehicle sales by the battery business to determine the phenomenon. In this situation, 2015 and 2016, the domestic power battery business investment continued to grow, production capacity continues to expand. As of the end of 2016, the domestic power battery industry increased by 42GWh (1GWh = 1 million kilowatt hours) compared with the same period, the total volume is almost 3 times the 2015 annual shipments.


As the scale has been rapidly improved, China has become the world's automotive lithium-ion battery power of the main production base. In this regard, the national 863 plan energy-saving and new energy vehicles major project overall expert group leader, Tsinghua University professor Ouyang Ming Gao said that the industry production capacity in three to five years to reach saturation.


Into 2017, by multiple factors superimposed, in January new energy vehicle sales fell more than 70% year on year. Coupled with rising raw material prices, power battery industry, the cost of pressure surge, began to fall into the structural adjustment pain.


Data show that compared with December 2016, ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate battery prices in early February this year, prices have declined, a decline of more than 15%. As the new energy vehicle manufacturers are still in the adjustment period, at present, the overall power battery business started flat, orders fell more than 20% year on year.


Industry analysis, power battery prices, on the one hand because of the recent decline in sales of new energy vehicles, on the other hand with a substantial expansion caused by excess capacity. 2016 domestic power battery capacity is nearly 3 times in 2015, while production increased by only 82%.


Experts said that 2017 power battery capacity as a whole show excess, the industry will face differentiation.


High-end capacity of low-end excess


Ministry of Industry and Trade Minister Miao Wei some time ago in the electric car hundreds of forums that the new energy automotive industry is still in the initial stage of development, as "against the current boat, no way back", although the new energy automotive industry to achieve rapid growth in production and sales scale, but the power The core technology of the battery also needs to be greatly improved, charging infrastructure construction still need to accelerate. At present, enterprises have emerged structural excess signs, power battery high-end production capacity of low-end overcapacity problem further intensified.


At present, the power battery market in the polarization of serious, low-level redundant construction problems, industry structural risks. From the market concentration point of view, 2015 shipments of the top 10 enterprises in the market share of 75.3%, the overall power battery 121 enterprises, the real access to the vehicle supply system is not more than 20.


According to the Chinese electric vehicles will publish hundreds of relevant information, the current development of China's lithium battery industry, the outstanding problems include the rapid expansion of production capacity, high-end low-end excess; battery announcement management tight, business response; Performance is not bad, but the group technology gap is obvious; technical route controversial, some enterprises frustrated; power battery automation equipment level is low; frequent safety accidents, battery safety urgent need to pay attention; recycling technology barriers, the implementation of policy implementation difficulties The


In this regard, the Chinese electric car 100 people will be chairman Chen Qingtai said that in the promotion of favorable policies, many new energy car companies are busy increasing production, competing to the battery business reminder, in order to get the battery product and even reduce the quality requirements. And some battery parts enterprises in order to protect the supply, but also reduces the quality standards, relax the management, slow down the pace of technology research and development. At the same time, the industry there are "small and scattered" problem. Due to the rapid expansion of the market and low access threshold, a large number of low-level research and development of small and medium-sized enterprises began to enter the power battery industry, but these enterprises in technological innovation and profitability no advantage.


The industry believes that although the current power battery industry has been among the world's first camp, but this does not mean that with the South Korea, Japan and other top companies no gap, according to a business person in charge, the current Japanese and Korean giants production of batteries products , One million failed only three, and the Chinese enterprises of the battery product pass rate is still unable to achieve this level.


Power battery industry or usher in change


Industry insiders believe that power battery industry overcapacity will appear after the fierce price war, profit decline and other issues will continue to plague the enterprise. But the high-end production capacity will be in short supply, those with product technology advantages, scale advantages and market share advantage of the enterprise will get better growth space. In 2017, the power battery industry is about to usher in a large wave of sand screening, some poor product quality, low safety factor battery manufacturers will gradually be eliminated by the market.


National new energy vehicle technology innovation project expert group leader Wang Binggang said, power battery enterprises show structural surplus, rather than absolute surplus, three, four lines of power battery companies will accelerate the process of elimination, some backward technology, positioning low-end enterprises Will be integrated acquisition.


Miao Wei said that the future will strengthen the production capacity control, while further promoting technological progress. Through the revision of new energy vehicle manufacturers and product access management regulations, improve the technical access threshold, prevent low-level redundant construction. For the "scattered, small, weak," the development pattern, the establishment of production capacity early warning mechanism to guide enterprises to plan the development plan.


Chen Qingtai also believes that the need to build an environmentally friendly, healthy and sustainable development of the power battery industry chain, increase R & D investment, the next effort to grasp the quality, down to solve the exposed problems. In addition to manufacturing processes and other sectors, the gap between domestic and international advanced technology lies in the basic industry, should pay more attention to the basic industry research, fundamentally shorten the gap between the world's advanced technology. At the same time, the government should also guide the industry through industrial policy, to promote industry changes, eliminate low-end production capacity, improve market concentration, optimize the industrial structure.


And to promote the power battery industry, technological progress, build a number of new products and new technologies, is becoming a breakthrough in the bottleneck of excess capacity of a major way. According to the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences researcher Li Hong revealed that the current Chinese Academy of Sciences is ongoing solid-state lithium battery development, the first batch of all solid-state lithium battery is expected to enter the market from 2020 to 2025.