Lithium plate situation is good under the more embarrassing situation of fluoride

- Aug 01, 2017-

Last week, Polyfluoride Chemical Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as: polyfluoride) released the first half of 2017 performance Express, Express reported that more than fluoride from the 2016 super-10 times the growth, into negative growth. In the situation of the lithium plate, the situation is more fragile extraordinarily embarrassing.


Leading enterprises encounter "Waterloo", why more fluorine is "green"?

Fluoride is the leading enterprises in the domestic fluoride industry. The current lithium-ion battery electrolyte is the main component of lithium hexafluorophosphate, and in 2011 before the world only Japan's Rising Chemical, Morita Chemical and Kanto Electric and a few chemical companies can produce this fluoride salt. After 2011, the domestic multi-fluorine as the representative of the chemical industry in the production of lithium hexafluorophosphate to achieve a breakthrough, but also for the development of domestic lithium-ion battery industry opened the situation.

In the Japanese chemical industry monopoly lithium hexafluorophosphate era, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 600,000 yuan / ton or more. Domestic enterprises to produce lithium hexafluorophosphate into the product supply and demand chain, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate fell to 250,000 yuan / ton, lithium-ion battery raw material costs greatly reduced. 2015 With the rise of new energy automotive industry, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices began to rise. 2016 to reach the price of over 40 million / ton. Polyfluoride 2016 operating income reached 2.857 billion yuan, an increase of 30.93% performance, net profit attributable to listed companies 478 million yuan, an increase of 1119.05%. Fluoride to achieve such a commercial "miracle" is not difficult to understand.

Into 2017, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices began to decline, the first half of the average price of about 30 million / ton, compared to last year about 40 million / ton price, the cumulative cumulative more than 30%. Which is mainly in the first half of the new energy vehicle sales by the national new energy vehicle subsidies slipping, slightly stagnant; followed by domestic fluorine chemical enterprises have expanded production, while Japan's Morita chemical business to resume production, lithium hexafluorophosphate production increased, the product competitive advantage decreased; Lithium carbonate prices are still high, lithium hexafluorophosphate prices fell last year, the product gross margin declined. This is the first half of this year, Fluoride Express reported the main reason for the loss.

Layout of the whole industry chain, the enterprise hanging "Damo Kris sword"

Although the competitiveness of lithium hexafluorophosphate products is not as strong as last year, but the actual market price has not fallen into the freezing point. The domestic fluorine chemical business performance in the first half will be the corresponding impact, but like the same multi-fluoride to sit on the performance of "roller coaster" business a few. The same is lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte as the main product of heaven-sent materials, the first half to make a pre-increase performance estimates. Fluoride and more abnormal performance may be associated with its power batteries, new energy vehicles in the industrial deployment has a close relationship.

2016 lithium hexafluorophosphate prices began to skyrocket, tasted the sweetness of the domestic fluorine chemical companies began to expand the planned deployment. It is predicted that the total market volume of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2017 is about 20,000 tons, and according to the expansion of each country in 2016 is expected to see the end of 2017 is likely to appear excess capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate situation. Affected by the new energy vehicle subsidies slipping, the first half of the overall sales of new energy vehicles is not high, lithium hexafluorophosphate market cast a layer of frost. Although the second half of this year, the new energy car market is generally optimistic, but in the shadow of excess capacity, lithium hexafluorophosphate market may still be happy. With the second half of the fluorine chemical industry's production capacity gradually released, lithium hexafluorophosphate will be difficult to return to the kind of strong market position in 2016.

Perhaps to see the future market of lithium hexafluorophosphate, fluoride and more tightening the pace of transformation and upgrading. In the whole industry chain deployment of polyfluoride will be completed in 2017 Jiaozuo new energy companies and Red Star power lithium battery project construction, will be the formation of 2.5 billion watts of capacity, polyfluoride will also be completed, including battery materials, lithium Power battery, new energy vehicle electrical assembly and new energy vehicle production of the whole industry chain layout. For which more fluoride to take out a lot of money to invest, which is more than half of the first half of the wealth reduction in the main reason for the reduction. Large capital investment and the decline of the main product market has become the first half of more than the first half of the main reasons for the growth of net profit.

In the current market an important transition period, the more difficult strategy to promote fluoride, must have their own strategic decisions. In fact, more and more domestic enterprises have made the same choice and more fluorine, began to start the industry chain of the article. Such as the recent high-profile acquisition of Nanjing bus factory Yinlong new energy, is to complete their own lithium iron oxide industry line + pure electric bus industry chain layout. Another example is the new energy automotive industry leader BYD, to achieve the commercial lithium battery + fuel vehicle + power battery + new energy vehicle + battery material industry chain layout. As well as the strength of Thornton new energy, will also be to achieve the battery material, power batteries, energy storage batteries, battery recycling and recycling of new energy vehicles and other industrial chain layout. So, the enterprise rush to the whole industry chain layout of the enterprise what is the benefit?

The layout of the whole industry chain is conducive to enterprises to seize the market, the formation of market competitiveness. The whole industry chain also means that the enterprise will be more likely to enjoy the integration of the advantages of integrated development, easier access to leading position, which is more likely to be profitable. According to the battery China Network to understand, more fluorine this year is expected to total sales of power batteries is 1 billion yuan, with the second half of the new energy vehicle sales callback, power battery business will turn, then more fluorine will appear stable Of the profit growth point. In addition, the fluorine-rich power battery industry can also be part of the consumption of polyfluoride in the market for low gross margin production capacity for the upstream production capacity stop and downstream of the Red Star electric vehicle to provide power batteries and assembly, reduce the electric car The cost of electric vehicles to improve the market competitiveness. The future, polyfluoride is expected to form a benign ecological chain, which in the fierce competition in the market to seize the initiative.

The layout of the whole industry chain in line with national policy direction, is conducive to the new energy automotive industry tree leader, is conducive to promoting the development of new energy automotive industry. From the current implementation of the "thirty thousand kilometers" standard, "8GWh threshold", passenger car "eight hundred thousand kilometers" standard, the national policy is more inclined to the market competitiveness of enterprises. The next phase of the market will enter the stage of integration, large enterprises are more competitive, and more likely to win in the fierce market competition.

Looking around the world, many foreign large enterprises have embarked on the layout of the whole industry chain. Such as Tesla, in addition to smart pure electric vehicle manufacturing, which is still power batteries, energy storage batteries on the relevant layout. Tesla is not only known as the "aircraft carrier to heaven" super battery factory, as well as for automotive power battery management BMS system and unmanned system, in addition to Tesla's energy storage business has also been a large single. While Samsung, LG and Panasonic these old group-style enterprise chain layout is more extensive and complex. The future of China's enterprises in the international market with such opponents to compete, competitive pressures can be imagined. Therefore, ahead of the whole industry chain layout can improve the international competitiveness of domestic enterprises.

Playing an inappropriate metaphor, the layout of the whole industry chain of enterprises, like the battle of the Red River Cao Cao. Battleships are linked by chains, even if not familiar with the water war of the army, in the face of the Yangtze River when the natural can be calm. This "monstrous" does have its own advantages, but there are also risks.

Layout of the whole industry chain, who pay for business risk? Long industry chain, which means that companies need to pay a long chain of funds. And long chain of funds means that companies will face more market leverage and risk. Lithium industry is a resource industry, the face of rising raw material costs, and increasingly lower product prices, corporate profit margins have been compressed. Lithium market before the real maturity, companies will face greater market competition, the whole industry chain layout of the enterprise will have greater risk to face the possibility of capital fuses. "A move inadvertently, full disk are lost," once the decision-making mistakes, such enterprises will be likely to fall dead bones without deposit.

At present, the domestic new energy automotive industry to take shape, in addition to market regulation factors, many of them "plan" component. With the gradual formation of the market, the state subsidy policy will bid farewell to the stage of history. When the whole industry chain layout of the enterprise will be in the capital flow problems on the face of greater pressure. To the current "thirty thousand kilometers" standard, the car enterprises to allocate battery business back to the cycle of 12 months -18 months or so, the future of this cycle may be more long. For the need for a lot of cash flow of the whole industry chain enterprises, how to establish short-term, benign capital cycle will be the first threshold to test such enterprises.

Uncertainty in policy adjustment. In addition to funding problems, the national policy is also the layout of the whole industry is another unknown factor. The so-called "pull the whole body", the policy changes may be the layout of the whole industry more likely to cause the impact of the enterprise. Relative to the "boat small U-turn" small business, the whole industry layout of the enterprise may face the "warrior arm" dilemma. The future of new energy vehicles must rely on the market to adjust, the intensity of national subsidies will be smaller and smaller. But the introduction or adjustment of other policies, will have a greater impact on the enterprise.

"The hero of the times", in this new energy vehicle market transition period, "troubled times" will move toward the goal of the Central Plains. The whole industry chain layout of this card is good, but ultimately need to fight their own business, is to create a "business empire" of the gold and iron, or down the enterprise dominoes, power battery companies may be deduced the most worthy of the legendary legend.