Material prices skyrocketing trend of lithium raw materials

- Feb 12, 2017-

Electrolytic nickel, electrolytic cobalt, electrolytic manganese, cobalt sulfate and other raw materials prices rose in varying degrees, of which electrolytic cobalt, lithium cobalt oxide, cobalt tetroxide price growth rate is particularly prominent.

In fact, since late October 2016, copper foil, aluminum foil, electrolytic nickel, electrolytic cobalt, electrolytic manganese, lithium carbonate and other raw materials into the skyrocketing prices, including electrolytic cobalt rose as much as 42% . (SPIR) analyst Wang forward that raw material prices skyrocket will increase the cost of battery raw materials, but from the end market, the impact of subsidies by the new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles, battery prices are relatively stable, up space Limited, which will compress the profit margins of power battery business, for the power battery business is an important test.


List of raw material price table before and after the Spring Festival

Soaring raw material prices?

After the Spring Festival of raw material prices, not only by overseas cobalt prices rose factors, but also by the domestic policy environment and power battery projects to promote factors such as boost, specifically, mainly in the following points:

First, power battery project put into production, raw material demand. According to the Startup Research (SPIR) statistics, since January 2017 to less than 2 months time, the new energy vehicle projects involving 27.3 billion yuan of funds, power battery project involving 16 billion yuan of funds. A large number of capital into the lithium industry, stimulating power lithium battery demand, making raw material supply, prices.

Second, the new energy subsidies to clear policy for the battery business 17 years to plan to reassure. Four departments in a hurry to catch up with the last working day in 2016 issued a "new energy vehicles on the adjustment of the financial subsidies to promote the application of the notice," the news should be all the battery companies are highly anticipated. The introduction of new energy vehicles subsidy policy, making the battery power companies can be assured to boldly develop 2017 plan, and increase production capacity release.

Third, the power battery threshold or lowered to 3Gwh, prompting enterprises to accelerate capacity expansion. In late January 2017 news that the "automotive power battery industry standard conditions" (referred to as "normative conditions") has completed several rounds of comments, will soon be officially announced, it is learned that the modified version of the "normative conditions" will be lithium-ion The annual production capacity of battery companies to reduce the threshold to 30 billion watts to 50 million watts range, after the threshold set to "not less than 80 million hours. Threshold lowered to 3Gwh, making a number of power battery companies to achieve this threshold through capacity expansion, in order to achieve this threshold, the battery business in early 2017 began to intensify its efforts to expand production capacity, so as not to be eliminated or out.

Fourth, cobalt prices abroad, extending the impact of domestic raw material prices. At present, the dependence on domestic raw materials is too high, which is influenced by the international environment. On the one hand, the reserves of foreign resources are limited. On the other hand, the development of the raw materials is more difficult. This week, the world's two largest copper mine strikes brought about by the supply disruptions and other problems threaten the global copper supply reduction, promote international copper prices back to the highest level this year.

Future price trend estimates

2016 new energy vehicle production 517,000, sales 507,000, respectively, over the previous year increased by 51.7% and 53%. The rapid growth of new energy vehicles for the power lithium battery brings a huge market space. SPIR estimates that sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 740,000 in 2017, an increase of about 43% over the same period of last year. Of these, pure electric passenger cars are still the most important plate for production, combined with the new subsidy policy for energy density and endurance Mileage requirements, new energy vehicles, a single car with a significant increase in the amount of electricity in 2017, China's power lithium battery demand will reach 42.9GWH.

Therefore, the starting point of study (SPIR) is expected that the growth trend of lithium raw materials will continue for some time in 2017 electrolytic cobalt prices will continue to grow to 400,000 yuan / ton range, lithium cobalt oxide prices are expected to grow to 330,000 yuan / ton, More than 30%; battery-grade lithium carbonate prices will reach 150,000 yuan / ton, an increase of about 15%.

In addition, 2016 high-nickel battery research and development and production has been "Liaoyuanzhishi." Compared with lithium iron phosphate and low nickel ternary materials, high nickel ternary material due to the increase in the proportion of nickel, the specific energy has a greater advantage. High-nickel-type NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum), NCM622 and NCM811 ternary battery is the most important direction of development. It is foreseeable that the upgrading of the battery system in 2017 will be highlighted in the field of ternary lithium batteries, in which high-nickel ternary / silicon carbon anode system will become the 2017 R & D and production of the enterprise focus. Therefore, the starting point of study (SPIR) forecast in 2017 ternary material prices will rise significantly, the growth rate is expected to more than 20%.