2016 new energy automotive market, you can use twists and turns, Xianyihouyang to describe, one of the taste, ups and downs, Subway mixed.
2014 and 2015, high-speed growth, in fact, is not a normal phenomenon, is a typical "virtual fire too busy." Look ups and downs, production and sales climbing, the initial completion of the second Five-Year Plan objectives, achievements gratifying. However, behind the flashy, hiding a lot of problems, such as poor product performance, poor reliability, security issues frequently, industry concentration is low, cheat compensatory behavior tricks, opportunistic wind prevails. If the 13th Five-Year period to continue to rely on subsidies to stimulate the development model, can imagine, ranging from new energy automotive industry really mature, will focus on the outbreak because of the problem and destroyed.
First, the new energy automotive market Xianyihouyang
We can see the problem, the government departments can not see, so from the beginning of the New Year in 2016, the industry began a round of overkill of the dragnet action.
First, check the cheat, a check is half a year, a direct result of 2015 subsidy delay and future subsidies to the huge uncertainty, making most companies are caught in an extremely tight state of the capital chain, but also makes a lot of speculative enterprises In trouble and sprouting withdrawal Italy.
Followed by the abolition of the original model directory, the establishment of new energy vehicles to promote the application directory, in accordance with the national standard for testing, strictly control vehicle access.
Again is to establish a white list of power battery business, the vehicle subsidies and battery business white list linked to trying to change the small battery industry scattered situation.
Finally, the establishment of vehicle operation monitoring platform, all the running vehicle sales data must be uploaded to the monitoring center, change the poor quality products flooding the market situation, while the vehicle idle to effectively monitor the situation.
Sports regulation, has always been a common means of government, from law and order, transport, to industry and economic development, we are always accustomed to such issues accumulated to a sufficient time to a campaign to sweep away the disadvantages, as this means Malpractice, often be selectively ignored. The resulting problem is that its booming Yan Bo, the decline is also suddenly Yan, an industry is often explosive growth after cliff-type decline, and then lead to systemic risk, leaving a feather, LED, photovoltaic and other industries Of the Yin Kam not far.
Fortunately, at this time overkill, although it will bring labor pains, but still not beating beatings, unable to recover. With government departments in the end of the year introduced a number of policies, which means that the pull-net inventory is about to pass, the industry will usher in a round of small upward cycle, and may start a new round of explosive growth in 2018.
From the whole year, is expected to sales of new energy vehicles should be around 50 million, compared with last year, about 50% increase, although the beginning of the 700,000 than expected to go far, but the overall economy is still the index. From the segment market, passenger cars accounted for almost all of the incremental market, indicating that the new energy passenger car market is more certainty of certainty, also in line with the government's new energy 2020 passenger penetration rate of 7% aims.
New energy commercial vehicles and special vehicle market (mainly logistics vehicles), should be roughly the same as last year, which is mainly due to the delayed payment of subsidies and specific policy uncertainty caused by the majority of enterprises in the first half did not dare to radical preparation and Production, only to improve in the second half.
With the subsidy policy clear, most of the new energy vehicle business, in this year will have a more clear objectives and direction. It is foreseeable that in 2017 the new energy vehicle market, will not appear last year's ups and downs, but to maintain a relatively stable growth.
However, the new subsidy policy takes time to digest, products and technologies also need to re-planning, the first half of this year is expected to be the off-season production and sales, we will be busy developing new products, break through some technical bottlenecks, complete new product announcements; Of the growth should occur in the second half, the annual growth rate is expected to remain at 40% to 50%, a new round of growth in 2018-2020 climax.
Second, the battery industry, the initial pattern is difficult to shake the lead
As the vehicle sales data in December 2016 has not yet come out, so the author is difficult to accurately calculate the size of the annual power battery shipments, based on only 500,000 sales of rough data, 2016, the overall size of the domestic power battery market should In about 21GWh, compared to 2015, about 35% growth.
In December 2015 and January 2016, I wrote two articles, analysis of China's power battery market, respectively, "is not alarmist! 2016 power battery market will enter a local surplus era" and "2016 battery industry : You must understand the risks and opportunities, "then make early warning, power battery market will enter the era of structural excess, that is, a serious shortage of high-end ternary capacity, lithium iron phosphate and low-end ternary will be a serious surplus.
Time over the past year, the market high-end ternary serious shortage, CATL a square ternary batteries seriously in short supply, and the market there is no other large quantities of the same size enterprises supply batteries.
On the other hand, the commercial vehicle market is basically the same as in 2015, resulting in a large number of new lithium iron phosphate production capacity nowhere to release, which will lead from 2017, lithium iron phosphate batteries serious surplus. In addition, the logistics market by the impact of weak growth in the market, a large number of 18650 cylindrical batteries to do business, faced with great sales pressure, product homogeneity of serious, not enough competitiveness.
The author believes that the power battery market from 2016 to see, there are several trends need to be treated with caution:
1. The competitive landscape has been difficult to break
The author in May 2016 wrote an article "power battery market battle was in full swing, who braved the Swordsman?", Analysis that BYD and CATL will become the first domestic power battery market echelon, the leading edge will gradually expand, Followers can not shake. It now appears that the situation as I predict the development of unicorn-based enterprises have been formed, followers are difficult to go beyond.
The first tier: CATL, BYD, power battery output value of 100 to 150 million
BYD does not external power battery, it is not accurate statistics of its power battery output, only according to its sales model to speculate that should be between 100 to 150 million. CATL battery power supply domestic Yutong, Golden Dragon, Beiqi, Geely and other mainstream car prices, the annual sales should be expected in more than 12 billion. From the future growth, the author is more optimistic about the CATL, for three reasons: 1) its deep talent reserves, no other battery companies in the country can shoulder to shoulder; 2) ternary technical reserves ahead of the domestic competitors, 2 years; 3) a wide range of customer base, the leading commercial vehicle Yutong, passenger cars leading Beiqi and Geely, foreign BMW and the public, etc., are on its customer list, domestic and foreign blossom everywhere.
I predict, CATL may be around in 2020, reaching 100 billion scale, the growth of monopoly-oriented enterprises.
The second tier: Guoxuan, power of God, Walter, Universal A123, BAK, China Aviation lithium, micro-macro, about a dozen companies, power battery output value of 10 to 50 million
The gap between the second echelon and the first echelon gradually widen, with the market pattern gradually formed, the second tier companies to squeeze into the first echelon, the difficulty is also increasing. The second tier leader is the country Xuan, is expected in 2016 sales of about 50 billion, is the most promising to the first echelon sprint launched enterprises.
Subject to the talent pool, technology accumulation, product planning, customer relationships, brand value, and decision-making system, the second tier of the enterprise anti-risk ability was not as good as the first echelon of enterprises, tend to rise and fall with the industry trend, To achieve beyond development, from the second echelon, it must be innovative in the business model, take the road of resource integration, and upstream and downstream enterprises to achieve extensive joint, set up a larger industrial clusters.
The third tier: about 20 to 30 companies, power battery output value of 1 to 1 billion
Fourth echelon: power battery output value of 100 million or less
Third and fourth tier companies, because the number is too much, not to repeat. These enterprises break through the road, is through a market segment, to find the scale and value of the explosive growth path, such as fast-filling market, high-temperature alpine market, low-speed electric vehicle market. Or be selected to be mergers and acquisitions, is also a very good way out, such as listed companies, vehicle plants, large battery factory M & A or holding, access to stable business or sales channels.
2. Lithium iron phosphate to ternary speed to accelerate
With the commercial vehicle market in the next few years tend to become saturated, the logistics car market to pursue higher than the energy and Ekg indicators, iron lithium sales will be very Difficult to achieve speed growth, the incremental part of the market will mainly come from the ternary. 2017, production of lithium iron phosphate batteries-based enterprises, will face greater operating pressure, and those in the field of three yuan ahead of time to complete the technology research and development and introduction of competitive products, batteries business, will get more opportunities .
From the product point of view, the domestic ternary batteries in 2017 will square and cylindrical-based, square than the energy will reach or exceed 200Wh / kg, 18650 cylindrical batteries will be able to achieve stable production of 2.6Ah, and to the 2.9Ah forward. From a technical point of view, the cathode material from the 333,523 to 622 transition, carbon material is still the mainstream of the negative modification, silicon-carbon composite anode can be expected to use small quantities, of course, have to solve the problem of expansion and life. As for the graphene, hype will still be a main line, but in addition to used as a conductive agent, I really do not see any other purpose.
Fast charge the field of batteries, with the Sister Wang Dong joined hands outside the main silver dragon, it should be said to bring a trace of cool wind. For the purpose of business, such as taxis, buses, logistics vehicles, short-haul truck / truck, I believe that fast-charge battery is a very competitive product development. Of course, lithium titanate is not necessarily the direction of technology development, after all, fast charge capacity and cycle life is not the only indicator, or have both energy density and cost, otherwise the application is too narrow.
3. Resource integration will accelerate
Vehicle factory and battery factory supply and demand relationship between the phenomenon of upside down will not continue. In the automotive industry, has always been the vehicle manufacturer to grasp the entire industry's voice, and to the field of new energy automotive products, many OEMs were forced to ask the battery factory supply, for this suffered "humiliation", I believe that this Phenomenon does not exist for a long time.
With the gradual upgrading of battery production capacity, the market supply and demand will be relieved, vehicle manufacturers are also increasing the penetration of the three areas of electricity, the establishment of a wholly owned subsidiary, joint venture with the three power companies, holding or acquisition-related enterprises, Has become the norm.
I believe that, in addition to a few enterprises will remain independent of the development of batteries, most of the batteries enterprises need to rely on their position in the industrial chain which exists, integration of resources, or integration by other enterprises will be the trend.
For example, the core business of the enterprises, need to upstream of the raw materials (cathode, anode, electrolyte, diaphragm, mineral resources, etc.), downstream areas (BMS, Pack, motor, Integration, etc.) extension, the appropriate shareholding or holding a number of enterprises, and the need to establish a more solid business relationship with the vehicle companies, such as joint venture to build factories, or accept vehicle shares.
In the future competition, enterprises control the depth and breadth of the industry chain, will be the foundation for the survival and growth of enterprises. With the help of the power of capital, ahead of the layout, often more than the opponents have the upper hand, at the crucial moment to play the greatest value.
4. The importance of technology is more prominent
December 30, 2016, four ministries and commissions formally issued "the Ministry of Science and Technology Ministry of Industry and Information Technology Development and Reform Commission on the adjustment of new energy vehicles to promote the use of financial subsidies policy", the policy will be January 1, 2017 implementation. The new version of the subsidy policy, for passenger cars, commercial vehicles, logistics vehicles have increased for the battery system (Pack) than the energy requirements.
Passenger car requirements Pack energy density ≥ 90Wh / kg to get subsidies, ≥ 120Wh / kg you can get 1.1 times the benchmark subsidy.
Pack energy density is 85Wh / kg to get subsidy, Pack energy density in 85 ~ 95Wh / kg can get 0.8 times the benchmark subsidy, Pack energy density in 95 ~ 115Wh / kg can get 1 times the benchmark subsidy, ≥ 115Wh / kg You can get 1.2 times the benchmark subsidy.
Logistics vehicle requirements Pack energy density ≥ 90Wh / kg in order to obtain subsidies.
To achieve 115Wh / kg or even 120Wh / kg of energy density, but also take into account the life, safety, cost and other indicators, not so easy to achieve, not only need a breakthrough in energy density of batteries, but also in the batteries Group, thermal management, lightweight materials, structural design and design have made significant progress in order to make a good product.
Can imagine, technology is the lifeblood of enterprises, all enterprises should be hard skills, make themselves invincible in the fierce competition, those who do not attach importance to personnel training and technology research and development, blindly rely on enclosure, build factories, buy equipment , The production line to operate the enterprise, there is no way out, live a moment, not live long.
Third, the power battery Venture business investment gradually
With the development of the industry back to reason, the market structure gradually formed, I believe that investment opportunities in the field of power battery is also showing the effect of diminishing marginal. Investment in the field of investment risk is gradually increasing investment in large-scale, long construction period, a serious shortage of talent, investment output is slow, unless backed by large groups or OEMs, or new funds and team must be careful.
However, the upstream and downstream of the battery there are still a lot of investment opportunities, such as the upstream and the anode material, conductive agent, adhesive, pole piece, aluminum film / shell materials, downstream BMS, Pack, Three power integration, due to the relatively small scale of investment, input and output quickly, the pattern of competition is not clear, there are still many opportunities for investment and entrepreneurship, especially for a strong financial strength of the enterprise or have the technical strength of the team Development and innovation.