Round table guests:
Former deputy director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, National People's Congress senior researcher Wei Benhua Chongyang
Renmin University of ChinaChongyang financial research director, Chung Yeung investment president Wang Qing
Assistant Director of the Capital Market Research Institute of Shanghai Stock Exchange
Zhao Xijun, Vice Dean, School of Finance and Finance, Renmin University of China
Postdoctoral fellow of Tsinghua University
Moderator: Wang Wen, Executive Vice President, Chongyang Institute of Finance, Renmin University of China
The Round Table is a platform for discussion and exchange between the government, enterprises, academia, media, and the public. It is jointly established by the Chinese government network and well-known universities, research institutes and think tanks. It mainly focuses on economic and social fields In order to better grasp the direction of related fields at home and abroad, analysis of issues, lapping the policy, recommendations. As a strategic media cooperation, "First Financial Daily" will be published in the "Wenjin round table" wonderful content.
April 10 this year, Premier Li Keqiang said at the Boao Forum will actively create the conditions for the establishment of Shanghai and Hong Kong stock market trading mechanism. On that day, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission issued a joint announcement, in principle approved the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges and clearing institutions to carry out Shanghai stock market trading interoperability mechanism pilot (ie Shanghai and Hong Kong). November 10, the two re-issued a joint announcement of the CSRC announced the preparation is completed, the decision to approve the exchange and clearing institutions officially launched in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Shanghai and Hong Kong stock trading was on November 17 officially began.
From the announcement of the pilot to the official launch, which lasted only 7 months time. As of November 21, Shanghai and Hong Kong total turnover of 29.101 billion yuan, Shanghai stock turnover totaled 25.231 billion yuan, the net purchase of 23.64 billion yuan; Hong Kong stocks through the cumulative turnover of 3.87 billion yuan, the net buy Into the 2,928,000,000 yuan.
Running a week, Shanghai and Hong Kong to become the focus of discussion in all sectors of the market. Shanghai and Hong Kong-what is the real meaning? How to evaluate the first week of operation? Shanghai and Hong Kong how to "Daobi reform"? On Nov. 20, the symposium on "Shanghai and Hong Kong: Practical Significance and Future Development" was co-organized by Chong Yang Financial Research Institute of the Renmin University of China and the Chinese Government Network. Many scholars and practitioners discussed the above issues together. .
First, the milestone: the capital market to further open
In addition to technically connecting Hong Kong and the Mainland, Hong Kong and Shanghai have more important significance in strengthening the linkages between the Mainland and Hong Kong in the economic, financial and capital markets.
For China's capital account opening, Shanghai and Hong Kong is another important milestone. From the day of accepting Article 8 of the International Monetary Fund on December 1, 1996, and accepting the convertibility of RMB under the current account, we began to make tense preparations for the realization of convertibility of the Renminbi under the capital account. In 2002, the establishment of the QFII system enabled our capital market to open to foreign investors in at least some areas. This time, Shanghai and Hong Kong will be directly linked to domestic and foreign markets, our capital market is more important to the opening of a measure.
Shanghai and Hong Kong to promote the internationalization of the RMB is also an important measure. RMB internationalization includes three important factors: First, the trade settlement links; the second is to make the yuan into a key factor in investment money; third is to become a reserve currency for its accumulation conditions. In the investment play the role of the renminbi, Shanghai and Hong Kong pass is a very big help factors.
In addition, Shanghai and Hong Kong has a model significance, the formation of a good external impact, you can force the country to further reform and opening up.
Shanghai and Hong Kong from the short, medium and long term have different effects. The short term, Shanghai and Hong Kong is the catalyst for the stock market. China's A-share market began in July, a wave of middle-level market, the driving factors behind it there are two, one of the whole society risk-free interest rate down, the other is to Shanghai and Hong Kong as a symbol of domestic and foreign capital market Internet Interworking.
In the medium term, it can boost the gradual reform of China, in promoting the convertibility of RMB capital projects in the process, Shanghai and Hong Kong is a very good observation and experimental field. Our capital account includes direct investment, trade-related areas have been liberalized, but Shanghai and Hong Kong through the secondary market will be opened up inside and outside. The secondary market is more flexible, more mobile, we can pass through Shanghai and Hong Kong to observe and determine the domestic and foreign markets connected to the impact on the domestic market.
The long term, will further promote the two-way opening of China's capital market. We have done calculations, the Shanghai stock through the initial amount of 300 billion yuan, f can invest in A shares of foreign capital accumulated up to 1 trillion yuan. If you consider QFII, RQFII and Shanghai and Hong Kong-line, the maximum amount of foreign funds to enter the A shares of about 400 billion US dollars. Further opening up, A-share market is expected to be included in the MSCI index, after which we estimate the total domestic funds allocated to foreign funds up to 1 trillion US dollars.
Once the A-share market into the MSCI index, foreign institutional investors in the A-share market investment, is no longer an option, but necessary.
The most important significance of Shanghai and Hong Kong is that this system is a manifestation of the advantages of "Mainland supports Hong Kong, the Mainland and Hong Kong for common development". The Hong Kong market is highly internationalized, but it has been difficult for Mainland and Hong Kong investors to invest cross-border securities. Shanghai and Hong Kong channel to open, in fact, is to further expand the channels of investment, to achieve the sharing of resources and investment opportunities. Because Hong Kong and Shanghai are two-way: Hong Kong's investors can participate in A shares in Shanghai to invest, to share A shares of investment opportunities, mainland investors can participate in Hong Kong investment in Hong Kong to share investment opportunities in Hong Kong.
On the mainland market, Shanghai and Hong Kong pass to the market mechanism to play a decisive role in resource allocation. On the one hand, the mainland market pricing can be more reasonable. Shanghai and Hong Kong will be the two investors together, the pricing platform tends to be unified, market-driven arbitrage will further market pricing mechanism will be unified. This improves the efficiency of market operation, segmentation tends to be less, efficiency is rising.
In addition, Hong Kong is a capital distribution center, an international financial center, the Mainland and Hong Kong get through, in fact, with more countries and regions. The influence of the Mainland market can be expanded to Hong Kong, New York, London, Singapore and other regions, so that market allocation of resources in space to be more widely reflected.
The further opening up of capital projects, the further internationalization of the renminbi, Shanghai and Hong Kong-pass is of great significance. But the need to improve the details of the design, in order to avoid some fluctuations and unnecessary shocks.
Shanghai Stock Exchange Capital Market Research Institute in Shanghai and Hong Kong through the promotion as an independent assessment team conducted a series of evaluation. Shanghai and Hong Kong on the mainland market valuation structure optimization, enhance the structure of investors, investment philosophy is very important.
Mainland retail market accounts for small and medium accounts accounted for more than 90%, to account for more than 80% of turnover. Hong Kong is the institutional market, institutional transactions accounted for more than 60%, especially in Europe and the United States institutions accounted for the majority. Two markets therefore have different characteristics, retail is characterized by "speculation small difference", frequent trading, investment philosophy is not so rational. After the two markets docking, so that foreign investment is to change the investment philosophy is a very good way. After the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, foreign stocks are favored blue chips. Blue-chip and value investing more and more attention, this is actually the process of value regression.
With the advent of cross-border mergers and acquisitions era, the market value of listed companies management is more and more important. Market value management system, we believe that should be an open and transparent information disclosure system of market-oriented operation mechanism, rather than the traditional "put the message" stock price. But this kind of scientific market value management system, through the moral guidance is difficult to establish, need to establish economic mechanism. After the opening of Shanghai and Hong Kong, foreign investors to enter just to help domestic enterprises in the market value of the management of homing.
Market value management is very important, I think the next 20 years related to the global competitiveness of Chinese listed companies. If the current market value of Chinese listed companies management mechanism and system, or the continuation of the traditional capital market, which enhance the competitiveness of enterprises is a constraint.
Over the past six months, mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China has an obvious feature, that cross-industry mergers and acquisitions, and to film and television, hand tour, the concept of the Internet-based. A traditional industry listed companies to acquire a game company, the share price will often double. This will lead to a result that listed companies investors "match up", while ignoring the M & A itself on the company's main business value.
On the one hand, the value judgment of the investors may change. On the other hand, the change of investors will change the information disclosure and capital operation of Chinese listed companies, which will lead to the global competitiveness of Chinese listed companies. If the use of Shanghai and Hong Kong through this platform, the introduction of more rational and value discovery of investors, so that they can help listed companies to complete industrial mergers and acquisitions to help it form a global competitiveness, then the role of Shanghai and Hong Kong pass is very important, Beyond the role of capital and technology, so that the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises to achieve the nature of the upgrade.
Second, the first week of performance: calm, dull, smooth
Shanghai and Hong Kong through the early operation, from the operational point of view more successful. As a "pioneer" system, after the launch of funds, securities trading smoothly, there is no problem; the overall performance of the capital market is stable, and the more dull, the more calm the better.
For the funds "weak south, north strong" performance, also in line with market expectations. One reason is that investors on both sides constitute different. Hong Kong is mainly based on institutional investors, they are characterized by stronger research capacity, more predictable, will naturally be arranged in advance, so the outside into the A shares to more funds; domestic investors mainly to the one hand, a qualified investment Restrictions on the other hand, individual investors, weak research, the layout is relatively lagging behind. Another reason is that the market value of different investment, A shares of some high-quality blue-chip valuation has a comparative advantage, the South to attract money.
The initial amount of use is not sufficient, it is normal. As a big opening, funding will gradually come in, beginning to enter the relatively short-term funds, especially hedge funds. Large, long-term mutual funds have not yet moved. Large institutions to enter China, is a strategic configuration, the need to observe, exercise, technical familiar with slowly after entering. Including tax policy and other details have just been settled, large institutions need time for internal digestion.
Another reason for foreign investors to wait and see is the nominal holding system. Shanghai and Hong Kong-based wind control considerations, the legal name of the holder of the stock is the clearing house. For large institutions abroad, the interpretation of the law is biased towards conservatism before fully understanding them. As far as we know, some US investors are more conservative in this issue, Europe is relatively easy to accept some.
Since the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong, from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the HKEx assessment point of view, very much in line with our expectations. Shanghai and Hong Kong as a mechanism is like "paving the way", if the beginning of the "traffic jam" but that design problems.
In terms of detail, we are exposed to large institutions outside the country, especially large funds, their national regulations on the operational details of the request is very high. Shanghai and Hong Kong through six months to complete the construction, many institutions in this period has not come to participate in the program. They need to see whether the market is running smoothly, and then the trading system, settlement system and docking with us, after the test can really enter. Large-scale funds for security, compliance requirements are very high.
This is in line with our design intentions for less funding to the south. Hong Kong is an institutional market with a high degree of internationalization and is not familiar with Mainland investors such as their trading settlement mechanism. Therefore, it is very irresponsible and risky for a large number of mainland retail investors to enter the Hong Kong market.
For this reason, the regulatory authorities at the request of both sides, we started the implementation of a qualified investor system, and in the course of the business launch of the broker in the process of opening the investor education and investor access requirements are very high. So that investors gradually familiar with and adapt to Hong Kong's trading mechanism, familiar with these companies, slowly into the market, so that it will be a very smooth way.
After the launch of Shanghai and Hong Kong market performance is stable, which with the past, we introduced a new system, the market reaction is very warm situation is different. I think this is our investors after 20 years of development, and continue to mature and rational performance. This is our further development of the market after the formation of a very good understanding of the market and determine the basis.
Third, Daobi reform: Imagination can be more daring
Shanghai and Hong Kong through the stable operation, you can be more daring to imagine, can explore other important global capital markets, international financial centers, such as New York, and even Europe. From the academic point of view, now you can seriously study the subject. Shanghai and Hong Kong to see if the experience and lessons learned from other mechanisms.
In addition, the A-shares to discuss the international board for a long time, but also face further reform. Shanghai and Hong Kong to open up the use of this favorable opportunity, you can explore further reform.
Shanghai and Hong Kong can force us to further deepen reform. Through Shanghai and Hong Kong, the two markets can achieve a wide range of docking and integration.
First, the trading mechanism. Hong Kong's transaction allows T + 0, we are now T +1, but Hong Kong's settlement is T + 2, our settlement is T +1. This difference in the two docking, will learn from each other, and integration with each other.
Second, corporate governance. Domestic listed companies have been criticized by many, foreign participation, it is conducive to play a "shareholder activism", the long term will have a great impact on corporate governance.
Third, product innovation. The Mainland market structure is very single, mainly stock and futures. Hong Kong market is rich, there are futures, options, warrants, structured products, CBBC and a series of products. Derivatives on the spot price is very critical, after the two markets butt, in fact, is to see who go faster. This will give us a very big pressure, so we must improve the pricing mechanism, as soon as possible derivatives. Therefore, the Shanghai Stock Exchange is also actively planning ETF options products.
Fourth, regulatory reform. Shanghai and Hong Kong as an opportunity, the two regulators signed a memorandum of cooperation, the two markets butt, foreign investment will be our regulatory requirements, which is to promote market supervision reform is very meaningful.
Fifth, market-related institutions. Including intermediaries, fund companies, securities companies in the business of international and operational level have a great boost. Recently, there are fund companies in Shanghai and Hong Kong to be introduced after the launch of related fund products, securities companies to launch related products, and foreign investors in Shanghai and Hong Kong opened after recruiting, research A shares, domestic brokers are actively planning Hong Kong stocks, now This integration of the two brokerages, "the same stage of competition," the level of the two sides to improve the institutions are very useful.
Shanghai and Hong Kong opened, is conducive to all aspects of the mainland capital market improvement. From the perspective of deepening reform and opening up,