1, December 10, 2016, the fourth G20-lithium summit in the first CEO meeting held in Shenzhen, the summit to join the five new member companies, respectively, the leader in the field of copper shares Nordisk (600100) (831742), a leader in lithium battery manufacturing, and a leading manufacturer of Lithium-Ion battery, Hanone Laser (002008), a leading manufacturer of lithium negative electrode materials, and a leader in the field of Lithium Diaphragms.
Second, the battery industry in 2016 background and trends in 2017 judged
1. "Policy, capital, technology, market" will still be the industry's four major driving forces, is expected in 2017, policy and capital is still the driving force of the driving force of the battery industry, but from 2018, After the policy stabilization and the capital rationality, the technology and the market will become the further development the key variable.
2. High-tech research Institute of Lithium Research (GGII) data show that in 2016 power battery capacity of 60GWh. The main power battery factory in the expansion state, to the end of 2016 power battery production capacity over the same period last year growth of over 100%; 2016 by the subsidy verification, ternary suspension, cheat compensation, power battery regulation adjustment, some expansion planning stranded; Year began overcapacity, price competition began to reduce the cost pressure to increase.
3. As an important variable in shaping the industrial structure, policy support to the enterprises in the field is becoming more and more obvious. Under this background, the industrial concentration will continue to improve. GGII data show that up to now, the number of domestic power battery business up to 145, is expected to 2018, will be reduced to 85.
4. In addition to policy, capital will play a key role in the development of the power battery industry. As of January to November 2016, the domestic lithium industry investment (including the proposed investment) more than 120 billion yuan, the actual investment of 55 billion yuan, and investment in parallel is a crazy capital mergers and acquisitions. As of early December 2016, the domestic lithium industry, industrial mergers and acquisitions 55 projects, in the context of the slowdown in traditional manufacturing growth, power battery industry will become the largest capital chase the outlet.
5. Industry agglomeration will become increasingly obvious, the industry will accelerate the integration phase out. With the traditional digital industry is different from the beginning of the new energy automotive industry is the accumulation of development model, which means that both in technology, market distribution, or in the business model, the depth of the industry chain will become deeper and deeper.
6. With the policy capital market heat continues to heat up around the core components such as China's battery industry, "globalization" to seize the commanding heights trend. The next few years, the domestic industry chain will enter a new round of elimination of backward production capacity of the integration cycle, while the globalization of Chinese enterprises will also enter a new era of integration.
Third, on the power battery down the cost pressure
1. Member companies agreed that, with the subsidy of the slope, cost reduction will become the power battery companies in 2017, the greatest pressure. Vehicle manufacturers for the battery manufacturers price is lower than the 2016 to 35-40%. This is the domestic power battery business will be a huge challenge.
2. Subsidies back slope at the same time, raw material prices continue to rise, the difference between the needs of the industry chain enterprises to digest, the battery business in 2017 will likely stage losses, can survive this stage will become Power battery business to survive the key threshold.
3. How to reduce costs, member companies consensus is: First, to break the monopoly of material aspects of the situation, while the battery echelon recycling echelon to build up, the real recycling; Second, to achieve large-scale manufacturing, Battery standardization on the basis of large-scale mass production, to minimize costs. Which both need the joint efforts of industrial chain enterprises.
4. Car prices under the cost pressure, power battery gross margin in 2017 will be a significant decline, while raw material prices will gradually release with the gradual decline in production capacity, the future, power battery cost reduction is reflected in the focus of three First, the scale effect appears; second is to raise the rate of qualified manufacturing; third is from the degree of automation.
Fourth, on the power battery market structure
1. Member companies believe that the pattern of the top five power companies battery basic has been set, but the pattern behind the volatility will be larger in the next few years, the main variables affecting the industrial structure, including government-led procurement, battery technology, based on industry chain linkage Price competition and economies of scale.
2. The next three years, in the price, technology, security and other aspects of the formation of a comprehensive competitive edge of the enterprise will quickly host, three or four lines battery business survival will be severely squeezed, the foreseeable is now 2017 Year, industry reshuffle will be ahead of schedule.
3. In the competition in the power battery industry, the ecological advantages generated by the industrial chain collaboration will be more competitive, fully conducive to the driving force of policy and market, make full use of supporting industrial chain, capital and business model, Of enterprises will quickly seize the market.
4. Expansion will become the next two years, the choice of mainstream enterprises in the industry chain, member companies believe that the expansion of production strategy of the test of the decision-makers and their team, one grasp of the rhythm, the second is on the border control, Technology accumulation and product forging.
5, on the power battery performance
According to this year's "energy-saving and new energy vehicle technology road map", in 2020, the pure electric vehicle power battery energy density target of 350wh / m, the battery power density is low, Kg, to reach the 2020 goal of 350wh / kg, will inevitably require enterprises through the continuous upgrading of materials and manufacturing processes to achieve.
2. In the market trend of power batteries, ternary is becoming the trend, GGII data show that 2016 ternary battery production accounted for 34%, an increase of 11%, mainly driven by passenger car growth; triple bus lifted Will further promote the development of ternary battery.
3. Member companies believe that the power battery materials are being upgraded, in addition to the introduction of ternary material on the technical route, but also speed up the ceramic diaphragm, silicon carbon anode, graphene conductive agent, new lithium salt and other new materials industrialization application.
4. Member companies believe that the material system in the update, will gradually from the lithium iron phosphate / graphite, ternary, high nickel ternary / silicon carbon and then to solid lithium, air metal battery evolution. "13th Five-Year Plan" period, member companies will be committed to high-nickel ternary / silicon carbon battery research and development efforts to achieve 350Wh / kg target.
5, the performance of the same time, how to maximize the security, is still the core of dynamic battery business proposition, member companies that enhance the performance of the same time, security issues can not be ignored, with the new energy vehicle market share growth, 2017 is expected to appear a power battery safety and after-sales peak, enterprises should focus on risk control.
Sixth, on raw material price fluctuations
1. By the lithium carbonate, copper and other prices driven, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, cathode materials and other core raw materials have emerged in varying degrees of price fluctuations, the downstream lithium business has brought great pressure. The main reason: 1) further increase in demand; 2) lithium ore production cycle is longer, the new project production capacity to release slower. Cathode materials, electrolyte prices affected by lithium carbonate prices, compared with 2015, a certain growth.
2. In 2017, with the gradual release of new production capacity, raw material prices will gradually return to rational, but should be wary of fluctuations in risk. Member companies believe that irrational price volatility is not conducive to the healthy development of the lithium industry, how to build a good development environment and enhance the competitiveness of China's lithium industry and concentration, the need for a high degree of cooperation with the entire industry chain.
3. A reasonable price rise can be resolved through the internal digestion and gradual transmission of the way, and the price fluctuations will bring huge risks to the enterprise inventory and capital chain, with the industry reshuffle speed up, the supply relationship is expected to continue to adjust .
4. Member companies believe that enterprises in the market development and suppliers and customers to establish a deep strategic binding relationship, but also through internal and external integration to supply chain defense, to avoid the risk of market supply fluctuations .
7, on the smart manufacturing upgrade
1. Member companies believe that around the large-scale intelligent battery industry development needs to promote the transformation and upgrading of equipment areas will be the trend of the battery industry in 2017 trend.
2. Large-scale manufacturing is not only reflected in the high-speed, high precision, but also reflected in the high stability, in fact, to enhance the stability of manufacturing equipment is a long-term lithium battery industry research tasks; intelligent main purpose is through digital means , The introduction of large data analysis and artificial intelligence of the principles and methods to enhance the quality of manufactured products, intelligent decomposition of its own unmanned, visualization, information technology.
3. Members agreed that, from large-scale intelligent manufacturing maturity and level of view, is still in the state of primary intelligence, only the equipment connected through the network, able to the most basic state of perception, to achieve production statistics, quality statistics , Equipment, basic diagnosis and traceability, and ultimately be able to achieve a comprehensive upgrade of the lithium process, on this basis, through continuous optimization, in order to ultimately achieve 99% of the lithium manufacturing process control, truly intelligent manufacturing.
Eight, on the terminal electric car market
1.2016 from January to November, 427,000 new energy vehicles, sales of 402,000, respectively, over the previous year increased by 59.0% and 60.4%. Of which pure electric vehicle production and sales were completed 340,000 and 31.6 million, respectively, over the previous year grew 75.6% and 77.8%; plug-in hybrid vehicle production and sales were completed 87,000 and 86,000, respectively, over the same period last year 16.2% and 18.0% respectively.
2. New energy bus and special car cheated by the investigation, the impact of the introduction of the stagnation of the directory market downturn, but with the completion of the fourth verification and the introduction of new energy vehicles to promote the directory, the market will return to stable growth.
3. The surging power of the logistics industry put forward a huge demand. The demand for logistics, such as China Post, SF Express and "three links and one up" express delivery enterprises, supply chain enterprises, beverage and food enterprises, food and beverage distribution enterprises, fresh produce industry, freight forwarding industry and manufacturing industry are also obvious Promotion. Electric logistics vehicle with its high volume ratio, strong substitutability, legitimacy, security and other characteristics of the logistics industry to achieve "last mile" the best choice.
Member companies believe that the next two years, electric logistics vehicles will be following the field of public transportation after the new energy automotive industry to become a new growth point. City logistics vehicle driving route is relatively fixed, the use of new energy power to facilitate centralized charging, both significantly reduce fuel costs, but also reduce the risk of confiscation of enterprise applications, so the market demand is expected to accelerate.
4. In the field of new energy passenger cars, with the central and local policies continue to force, coupled with the core parts costs continue to decline, supporting the construction of follow-up, the consumer market in the next two years, a breakthrough growth. Passenger cars in the new energy vehicle market share will be significantly improved.
5. Member enterprises believe that foreign car enterprises and joint ventures car prices of new energy strategy is accelerating, the domestic car prices will face with foreign brands and joint ventures of new energy vehicles confront the same, in the field of power batteries, the domestic power battery business Will face in the Chinese market with Japan and South Korea and other international power battery companies battle for the market. In the battery battle, the cost, security, high and low temperature characteristics, energy density, light weight and mileage will be the next competitive power battery business core point.
Nine, on the new energy vehicles subsidy policy
1. For new energy vehicles should not continue to complement? Member companies believe that incentives such incentives in the country to nurture an industry is still very important, the new energy automotive industry in the early stages of development, due to high investment, risk, consumption The environment is imperfect, lack of competitiveness of products and other factors, it is difficult to rely solely on the market to grow and develop. Appropriate subsidies are therefore necessary.
2. Members believe that a good industrial policy should meet the following four conditions, first, industrial policy can not replace the market, absolutely can not contain the market play a role, only to play a decisive role in the market to complement and improve. Second, the industrial policy to control the industry, not the management of enterprises in the industry to form a fair and just, competitive and orderly, open and competitive situation. Third, the industrial policy is more macro guidance, for the binding of the industrial policy, we must carefully weigh the pros and cons, repeated demonstration, extensive solicitation of opinions. Fourth, the industrial policy is phased, must be in a stage after the exit.