The next 10 years, the power battery capacity will be in short supply it?

- Jan 13, 2017-

The most stupid thing we can do is to further aggravate the situation of overcapacity. "In February 2016, Daimler CEO Zetsche (Dieter Zetsche) has said that the electric car battery has already appeared in the situation of oversupply, it will not invest in production of batteries.

However, Zetsche this position after less than a year, the Volkswagen Group has begun to worry about another situation - the battery production capacity.

Volkswagen will soon be in its MEB electrification platform for mass production of electric vehicles, will have a great demand for batteries, the world's largest six car lithium battery suppliers to participate in the bidding. But in December 2016, Volkswagen Group strategy director Thomas Sedran (Thomas Sedran) has said that six battery suppliers do not have to meet the needs of the battery capacity of the group.

Volkswagen will soon be in its MEB electrification platform for mass production of electric vehicles, will have a great demand for batteries.

In the increasingly stringent emission regulations under pressure, car manufacturers are also accelerating the response to electric vehicles. Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, General Motors and Ford are forecasting the future of automotive battery demand will be rapid growth, the public is expected to 2025 annual sales of 2 million to 3 million electric vehicles.

But the question is, the next 10 years, battery capacity can meet the demand for electric vehicles?

Volkswagen that Europe, China and North America, the demand for electric vehicles will increase significantly, of course, not only the idea of the public one. By 2020, Tesla hopes to sell 1 million electric vehicles around the world, Nissan is expected to sell 20% of its sales in Europe rely on electric vehicles to support Ford is that when the electric car sales will account for 15% of the Chinese market to 25% . By 2025, Mercedes-Benz is expected to sell 15% to 25% of its cars will be powered by batteries. BMW estimates the number of Mercedes-Benz consistent, but the plug-in hybrids are also included. Ford believes that by 2025, the global sales of cars in about 1/4 pure electric or plug-in hybrid.

Car manufacturers are not blindly optimistic. 2016, GM, Renault and LG Chemical to break the promotion of electric vehicles in the process of an important obstacle - life problems. GM announced that Chevrolet Bolt (European version of the Opel Ampera-e) a rechargeable battery life can be more than 310 miles. Renault second-generation Zoe equipped with LG's new lithium-ion battery, the upgraded battery capacity from 22 kWh to 41 kWh, life mileage of 250 miles. Analysts predict that 2019 mileage will appear leap-style growth.


In December, Volkswagen Group strategy director Thomas Sedran (Thomas Sedran) has said that six battery suppliers do not have to meet the needs of the battery capacity of the group.

In addition, another major obstacle to the promotion of electric vehicles - high battery prices with the battery energy density also decreased. BNP Paribas Financial analyst Exane BNP Paribas financial analysts released a report in September 2016, said the cost of electric vehicle batteries by 2020 from the current 400 US dollars per kilowatt-hour reduced to 215 US dollars per kilowatt-hour. By 2025, this figure will be further reduced to 140 US dollars.

Exane BNP Paribas estimates that by 2025, automakers will have higher profit margins on electric vehicles than internal combustion engine-powered vehicles, as battery production costs are expected to fall sharply. It also predicted that, according to the average battery capacity of 70 kilowatts to calculate, to meet the needs of 8.6 million vehicles, need 600 gigawatt hours of battery capacity.