Some Views On The Development Of New Energy Vehicles In 2017

- Feb 28, 2017-

Due to the larger decline in subsidies, car prices require the battery factory in accordance with the reduction rate of 20% or so, the two of the profit distribution to be re-necessary, the need for the game, the initial car prices should be a strong side, so the enthusiasm of the battery factory will be a certain degree influences.

The following is some time ago and some enterprises and investment institutions to exchange real lithium research on the development of new energy vehicles this year, some of the views, is simple to organize, and share with you. Opinion is not necessarily right, for reference only, please criticize correction.

Mo Ke: Some Opinions on the Development of New Energy Vehicles in 2017

1, car prices and battery factory when the normal production?

New Deal in the end of the introduction, indicating that the authorities would like to do 2017 new energy vehicles to promote the work, so last year, up to 8 months of product catalog announcement window period, this year will certainly not appear again. However, car prices and the first quarter of the battery factory may not be angry. Due to the abolition of subsidies this year, pre-allocated, increased the pressure of the car prices, therefore, the car's production plan will try to lean back At the same time, due to the larger decline in subsidies, car prices require the battery factory in accordance with the reduction rate of 20% or so, the profit distribution of the two to be re-necessary, the need for the game, the initial car prices should be strong side, so the enthusiasm of the battery factory will be To a certain extent.

(Add: this year's power battery prices are likely to Xianyihouyang, and ultimately may be slightly higher than last year.Although the pressure in the car prices, the current battery factory has cut prices by 10-15%, but in the resources and Material prices continue to rise in the actual situation, the battery core in the cumulative price rise potential and will eventually get rid of the pressure of car prices in the cost of the battery core rigid and downstream vehicle pressure under the combined effect of the module manufacturers, BMS manufacturers this year may be Will be more sad.)

2, non-personal purchase of the part (logistics vehicles, time-sharing leasing, etc.) in the New Deal will reduce the number of new energy vehicles to purchase? It is said to operate at least a year later to get subsidies? How much is this part sold in 15-16 years?

For non-individual users (ie group users) of 30,000 km cumulative mileage requirements, means that this part of the procurement subsidies to obtain time than the individual user field more than a year later. (100 km / day, if the vehicle is rented every year and 300 days a year to run on the road, 30,000 km need a year if the vehicle is not full rent out, or full rent but only on the road to run, need The time will be longer)

The development of the past two years shows that electric buses, electric vehicle field is almost all group users, A00-class miniature pure electric passenger car area more than 70% of the group users, A0 level and above pure electric passenger car is a small group Users (part of the BYD e6, e5 for the taxi market), plug-in passenger car almost no group users.

Relevant sales data for 2015: Class A0 and above pure electric passenger car 130862, A00 pure electric passenger car 77085, mating car 61012, pure electric bus 81166, inserted bus 23957, Pure electric vehicles 44,878 vehicles. The overall production data is slightly more than the corresponding sales data. Overall, more than 48% of subscribers in 2015 are group users.

2016 production and sales data are still finishing. Production data roughly the situation: A0 level and above pure electric passenger car 133405, A00 pure electric passenger car 110975, intercalated passenger car 73360, pure electric bus 115059, inserted bus 20011, pure electric 60688 special vehicles, mixed with a special car. The overall sales volume is slightly lower than the corresponding production data. Overall, more than 53% in 2016 is the group of users, the proportion of year on year growth.

It is expected that the share of the Group's purchases in 2017 is likely to fall below 40% or less, and the corresponding annual sales of miniature pure electric passenger cars, electric buses and electric buses will be a high probability event.

Mo Ke: Some Opinions on the Development of New Energy Vehicles in 2017

(Supplement: the first two years, the Group accounted for a large number of users, is the real lithium research that this year, new energy vehicles is difficult to continue to maintain the main reason for rapid development.If the government to take some such as the traditional taxi forced to replace the electric taxi measures, Then 40% of the forecast is based on the real lithium research forecast of 60-65 million, we believe that this year's group of users of the purchase is difficult to exceed 24 million.)