Tesla Suggests That Model 3 Battery Costs Are Below $ 125 / KWh

- Feb 21, 2017-

Tesla Model 3 As low as $ 35,000 since the release price has been encountered too much doubt. Now out of the network out of the Tesla super battery factory Gigafactory latest video to give these questions a strong response, the video shows that Tesla latest battery costs have been less than $ 125 / kWh!

The video was first published by Instagram on a friend named @ ty02ryan, the video seems to be Tesla in Santa Monica, California Tesla experience center and Nevada super battery factory shooting the latest film. Video clearly stated that the cost of Tesla battery has dropped by 35%, this indicator is higher than including Tesla CEO Elon Musk, including Tesla high-level publicity has always been "Model 3 battery costs and then down 30%" argument.

The development of things began to become more interesting. We know that Tesla and the entire automotive industry, investment research institutions data "fight" a long time. In the previous article we mentioned that the Mercedes-Benz internal estimates show that the cost of power batteries to 2025 will be reduced to 200 euros (about 220 US dollars) / kWh below.

Dr. Menahem Anderman is the founder of Total Battery Consulting, a senior battery specialist. He has published a "The Tesla Battery Report" that tracks the record of anticipation of anticipation of growth in electric vehicles and a possible opportunity for a drop in battery costs a few years ago Bubble prediction theory. "Our evaluation shows that battery costs can not be reduced to $ 167 / kWh before 2025." In evaluating Model 3, Anderman said the actual price of Model 3 was much higher than that of Tes Pull the established price of 35,000 US dollars. The report says: "The price of Model 3 will be in the range of $ 50,000 to $ 80,000."

McKinsey last month released a research report that the electric car supply chain, especially the power battery-based average cost in the past six years has fallen by nearly 80%, from 2010 1000 US dollars / kWh down to 227 USD / kWh. Since it is the "average cost", naturally there is a technology leader in the cost of the battery less than $ 227 / kWh this indicator.

In April 2016, CEO of Auto Lectrification CEO Jon Bereisa on the Tesla Model 3 analysis, said Tesla battery cost 190 US dollars / kWh calculation, Model 3 the entire battery pack (including the battery, thermal management components, including the entire BMS system) costs about $ 260 / kWh. While the General Blot electric vehicle battery pack costs $ 215 / kWh. Jeff Evanson, then vice president of investor relations at Tesla, responded by saying that Tesla's current battery pack had fallen to $ 190 / kWh, which means that if the cost of removing the BMS system, Tesla's battery The cost is likely to be less than $ 150 / kWh.

Coupled with the "35% REDUCTION IN BATTERY COSTS" that came out of this video, the cost of the Model 3 battery pack was less than 190 x (1-0.35) = $ 125 / kWh, even at $ 190 / kWh.

In an interview with analysts such as Jon Bereisa last year that questioned the cost of the battery to make $ 3 $ 3 a price of $ 3 suspicious, Tesla CTO JB Straubel said he did not think the cost of the battery would be a Model 3 constraint, but he did not give Specific reasons, the reason now gradually surfaced to 60kWh, for example, Model 3 battery costs will be less than 125 × 60 = 7500 US dollars.

What percentage of battery cost does the cost of the vehicle cost? Straubel had previously interviewed MIT Technology Review and responded to the cost of Model S battery, saying: "They always say less than half, actually less than a quarter in every cases." The total cost of the battery is less than half of the cost of manufacturing the vehicle , In fact, less than 1/4.) "

If we simply and rude according to Model S battery cost to guess Model 3, then the overall cost of Model 3 about 7,500 US dollars × 4 = 30,000 US dollars, if sold for 35,000 US dollars, at least not contrary to the basic business rules , Is not the so-called "lose money earned crying".

But we can first verify the feasibility of commercialization of Model 3 aside, the above McKinsey report pointed out that the average cost of power battery in 2016 $ 227 / kWh, if Tesla will really push the battery cost to the average level of less than half , Then Tesla is likely to establish its own barriers to competition, to further consolidate its leading position in the electric vehicle industry.

Video in the Tesla earnings conference call held three days before the outcry of the eye is also strange, although it is published earnings, but Wall Street all eyes have all concentrated on the next generation Model 3. "Wall Street is eager to hear the technical and cost details of the car," said Marketwatch's report. "Ben Kallo, an analyst from Baird, has used Tesla's stock as the highest-up bullish stock in 2017. He said that even if Tesla would delay delivery of a quarter, it would not have a significant impact on Model 3's market performance.

In addition, in order to control the backlog of orders, the Tesla official tried to "divert" the Model 3's potential customers to Model S & X products, and Musk said, "When someone has a prepaid deposit of $ 700 million, When we came to Tesla Service Center to book Model 3, we would say to him why we did not try Model S & X? At that time we were curbing the growth of Model 3 orders. "But in this promo, Model 3 and 2170 batteries, Super battery factory with a mirror, does it mean that Tesla has solved the production of the problem, restart the Model 3 publicity and promotion?

There are three days to be published earnings, and all the questions will be announced in three days together.