The Agency Expects Cobalt Prices To Continue To Rise

- Feb 23, 2017-

"In the afternoon, on the afternoon of 22, the reporter contacted the Huayou Cobalt, Green and Jinchuan Group, three, and so on. The country's largest supplier of cobalt, the sales department's response is quite consistent, all the "out of stock."

Three suppliers to stop the price of cobalt price doubled still "a cargo difficult to find"

In the past three or four months time, cobalt prices almost doubled. And the treatment of other varieties of cement and other differences in the differences and cautious completely different, brokerage agencies are almost all expected to rise further cobalt prices, "to support the price factors too much, scarce, tight supply and demand, oligarchy, small varieties easy to speculation, As well as the current situation of the Congo, etc. "There are brokerage researcher to the reporter analysis.

Three major manufacturers collective "reluctant to sell"

"Thought to be up, but did not expect to rise so fast!" Fujian, a large new energy battery manufacturers, a purchasing manager to the reporter.

According to statistics on February 13, 2017, the reference price of metal cobalt is 377,000 yuan per ton, four months ago, October 22, 2016, metal cobalt offer at 22 million, during the period Or more than 70%. February 1 this year, the price of metal cobalt is 295,000 yuan per ton, this month has risen about 25%.

Even if the price has risen sharply, but the supply of cobalt products is still very tense.

22 afternoon, this reporter contacted the Huayou Cobalt sales department, the other reply, cobalt oxide, cobalt oxide and other products have all stopped the offer, "out of stock, suspended offer." "How to get the goods?" " There is no goods now. "

Huayou Cobalt is one of the largest cobalt suppliers in China. Grammy, Huayou Cobalt, Jinchuan Group, the three occupied the market half of the country.

"We can not say that we are completely out of stock now, but it's definitely a matter of first tranche, and then we're going to ship it again." Green is also one of the largest cobalt suppliers in the country, and in 2016, Metal cobalt production reached 10,000 tons, cobalt plate revenue accounted for about half of the company's total revenue.

Jinchuan Group sales reply, the company is currently only a small number of long-term cooperation of the manufacturers supply, has stopped selling. Jinchuan is the traditional cobalt industry big brother, sitting in China's only high-quality cobalt ore resources. It is worth mentioning that the group's company Jinchuan technology has been listed on the new three board, but has launched IPO listing counseling. Supply and demand reversal to stimulate short - term surge

The first two years also completely sell the cobalt, why suddenly so tight?

"Supply and demand situation has been reversed!" A company just in a cobalt listed companies to complete the research broker researcher to the reporter, the market had been expected this year (2017) cobalt ore supply will be scarce, after the Spring Festival ternary battery Of the explosive growth is exacerbated by this shortage.

It is understood that the current lithium battery industry is the largest application of cobalt in the country announced a new version of the new energy vehicles after the subsidy policy, in order to obtain high-end subsidies, depot battery energy density requirements, ternary route quickly popular, this short term Leading to the battery business to increase the nickel, cobalt and other ternary materials in the basic needs of small metals.

Vendors accordingly predicted that the global new energy vehicles in 2020, the demand for cobalt will reach 35,600 tons of metal equivalent, compared to 2015 growth of 10 times the demand for the entire cobalt will reach about 150,000 tons. 2015 global cobalt raw material supply is about 110,000 tons of metal, even if the supply side of the annual growth rate of 7%, supply and demand gap is still huge.

Huachuang Securities in the latest research report in 2017 cobalt will appear in the gap of 4,000 tons to 5,000 tons.

The agency expects cobalt prices to continue to rise

There are also some industry insiders believe that the rise in cobalt prices is sustained decline after the retaliatory rebound. According to reports, since the 2008 financial crisis, the price of cobalt has been lower, from the highest when the 860,000 / ton price fell to less than 200,000 / ton level, a long downturn to many companies in the industry losses or even out.

But a number of professional organizations are firmly believe that this round of rising cobalt prices may not only rebound, such as Antaike, this subordinate to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association consulting service providers, from last year to continue to release cobalt prices bullish Research report, and that in full inventory after the cobalt price is expected to continue to rise.

An important reason to support the rise is that the yield elasticity of cobalt is rather limited compared to the fast growing demand. According to reports, as copper and nickel associated ore, cobalt content in nature is very low, copper prices continued to decline, making the cobalt ore supply is also forced to shrink. In the past few years, the traditional supplier of cobalt can be, the Eurasian resources, free ports have appeared in varying degrees of shutdown and cut the phenomenon. In addition, the impact of child labor and the excavation conditions limit, accounting for 50% of the global cobalt supply of Congo (gold) also shut down the handmade mine, resulting in a reduction in supply of about 10,000 tons.

In addition, the cobalt ore resource concentration is very high, the world's top six cobalt producers total production in the global share of more than 60%, the giant has a strong pricing power.